Let me start out by saying that I generally try and stay away from political comments. I prefer to stay on topic and discuss the facts, but this time I have no choice but to comment on politics. This latest round of political games has my blood boiling and I can’t hold back any longer.

Congress just passed another $1 billion dollar emergency homeowners relief fund. You can read all about it on MarketWatch, here is the link: www.marketwatch.com.

Were shall I start?

I guess I will start out with the phrase “emergency homeowners relief”. Emergency, really??? The emergency was almost two years ago when they pasted the TARP funds to help, if you remember, homeowners and bail out the banks and financial institutions, but once the TARP funds were approved by congress, they decided it would be better to just buy stocks in the companies they chose to keep solvent. It didn’t seem to be that much of an emergency to congress in 2008, otherwise they would have spent that money on what they told us was the reason in the first place to pass the TARP funds. I think the only reason it is an emergency right now, is because the midterm elections are in 4 months.

So now that we understand the congressional definition of an “Emergency” we can then start to talk about the facts. They are as follows:  More...

In the 11th inning, the House of Representatives finally passed the closing date extension to September 30th for the first time homebuyer’s $8,000 tax credit. This is good news as an expected 180,000 transaction that were successfully signed and finalized by the April 30th deadline that supposed to close by June 30th, didn’t close.

There are many reasons why these transactions are taking so long, but the primary reason is because the most of those transactions are short sales and getting to the closing table with short sales can be a headache to say the least. But now they have an additional 90 days to rap them up and close by September 30th.  More...

Look at the drop starting on May 1st. This graph should be all you need to realize that the first time home buyers tax credit drove a lot of sales at the moment, but they would be sales that were pulled forward. In other words, if the tax credit wasn’t there, the sales would probably still have happened, but they would have been spread out over time rather than pushed back into April.

First of all, the banks are short staffed, so they can’t file NOD (Notice of Defaults) and complete the foreclosure process as fast as new borrowers are falling into default. The average borrower in foreclosure has been delinquent for 438 days before actually being evicted, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That is the first part to Shadow Inventory.

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This has also created other problems. I had a closing that kept getting pushed back because FHA hadn’t review the file to release the funds because they were so backed up. We finally closed last week and from talking to the buyers at the closing, they just wanted to close before they lost the credit, but it wouldn’t have stopped them from buying, they just bought now rather then this summer when they originally planned on moving.

You may have heard this term thrown around lately, but what the heck is it? Shadow Inventory is basically inventory that hasn’t made it to the market yet. There are several components to Shadow Inventory.

First of all, the banks are short staffed, so they can’t file NOD (Notice of Defaults) and complete the foreclosure process as fast as new borrowers are falling into default. The average borrower in foreclosure has been delinquent for 438 days before actually being evicted, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That is the first part to “Shadow Inventory”.

Secondly, a lot of lenders that are taking properties back through the foreclosure process are supposedly holding on to them through holding companies and not releasing them to the market. Their reasoning is actually a valid one. They are afraid that if they release too much inventory to soon, housing values could plummet. And I agree with that assumption, but I am one who prefers to rip the band aid off quickly.

I have heard and read, but never confirmed that there is an estimated 3-7 million units in Shadow Inventory just lingering out there. My question is, how long can they hold into all that inventory.

Another component that I think needs to be added to the overall Shadow Inventory count is all the properties out there that the banks are in the midst of negotiating loan modifications. Half of all loan modifications have defaulted so far. If one was to think about it, shouldn’t those properties also be considered Shadow Inventory? I know what some of you are thinking; “But Mike, they are not in foreclosure yet”. While that may be true, I would say that if it wasn’t for the current administration giving the lenders an incentive to work out loan modifications, that they would be, and let’s face it, statistically, half of them will be shortly.

So far all I have mentioned is residential properties, but what about commercial. Office vacancy rate is currently falling as we speak. According to CoStar GROUP there is an additional 420 million sq ft vacant office space that is currently being leased, but not occupied. The reason for this is all the layoffs from large corporations that are still paying on the leases, but laid all the employees off that used to occupy those desks. What will happen when those leases expire?

Only mere hours ago we all saw live the Dow drop near 1,000 points in a startling amount of time. As I’m writing this the market has “recovered” but such volatility will not leave the minds of those who have their savings and IRAs in a stock portfolio that is certainly showing more red than they are accustomed to. To think that such a small country like Greece can trigger such waves because of the liquidity has compromised the integrity of the stock market and the following stories, finger pointing and possible domino effect that may be looming will leave these investors looking for a safe haven.

Suddenly the idea of investing into private money secured by real estate is looking a lot better More...

Obviously it is, but how is it changing and what direction are we headed is the question most people are asking themselves these days. Some of the old school investors/realtors will relate to this article, but for most of you, this will seem like a radical new approach to real estate. You see, the changes I am going to be talking about or nothing more that real estate cycles coming back around full swing.

Over the last ten years or so, all you needed was a pulse and a few months to build appreciation in order to make money in real estate. That has changed drastically, today not only do you need a pulse, you also need a creative thinking brain. However, just having a pulse will not get you a mortgage anymore. In fact, I think the only way to get a mortgage today is to prove that you absolutely don’t need it, and then you have at least a fighting chance to get past underwriting.

Over the past two years, the real estate market has been going through a market correction, because of the over inflation of housing prices. Most of these properties have been either short sales or foreclosed upon by the banks and put back on the market at reduced prices. In many areas, prices have begun to stabilize and the new market values have been established. The first time home buyers tax credit helped boast these sales and stabilize prices. However, access to financing is getting harder and interest rates are expected to increase over the next few years. This will help to bring down prices of the surrounding properties over the next few years.  More...

BofA announced Wednesday that it would reduce mortgage balances by as much as 30% for homeowners who were upside down and got their loan from Countrywide. While BofA may only be doing this to avoid a predatory lending lawsuit from the Massachusetts AG, Martha Coakley, this is what the market has needed. The current, or should I say previous loan modification programs have thus far been a horrid failure with only 4% - 8% of all modification being approved and we are already seeing high default rates on those modifications.

Here are some of the details of the BofA program:

• Invitation only: the bank will contact you if you qualify
• The program is for Countrywide borrowers only
• Loan balance must be at least 120% of the estimated market value
• Borrower must be at least 60 days overdue
• Borrower must demonstrate financial hardship  More...

I do a live weekly webinar training for real estate investors from all over the country. The weekly training is designed to help you either get started or get back on track. We have a vast verity of investors on the weekly training call from beginners to seasoned investors and one thing that I have been trying to emphasis on the training calls is that there is no one magical technique for success.

There are common traits and behaviors of successful investors, but they all have their own (sometimes unique) business models and they stick to it. However, in today’s rapidly changing market and economy, even those seasoned investors have been forced to change their strategies recently, myself included. That is why we have been seeing so many seasoned investors looking for answers.

I have been working with everyone to help them understand that one key fundamental to long term success in real estate, or any other business for that matter is the ability to change with the market. The market has changed and so must we.

So I am reaching out to all my fellow investors, new and old to find out what is working for you in your market? In the comments section below, tell us what is working for you, or what you have been doing lately. Then join us on the weekly training calls to continue this discussion on a weekly basis. More...

While the government wants us to believe that the recession is over and the economy is heading back in the right direction, all the indicators show something completely different. Housing prices in particular are heading back down in many areas, as I have predicted several times in the past on our weekly training calls.

CNBC even talked about it the other day on their Power Lunch news show.

Jobs are the biggest reason in my opinion. While the Unemployment rate has dropped below 10%, the number of people unemployed is still growing, currently over 17%. The unemployment rate only counts the number of people currently collecting unemployment benefits. It does not count the number of people whose benefits have expired and are still unemployed. More...

Ok, ok, I know, flipping has never been illegal, but with recent changes in the mortgage industry, the lenders are coming back around and asking for our help again. Wells Fargo was actually the first major lender to change its stance on seasoning, but because FHA is a government program, this is huge. First, let me give you a little back ground so you understand what the hoopla is all about over FHA temporarily suspending its 90 day title seasoning rule.

Several years ago, when all was right with the world, some investors were taking advantage of a unique situation in the mortgage industry. The federal government wanted everyone to be able to take advantage of the America dream. So they lowered interest rates and loosened up the required mortgage qualification guidelines for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backed mortgages, including down payments. This actually made it cheaper and easier for people who normally would never have been able to qualify for a mortgage, get one with little or no money down.

These changes actually made it cheaper for a tenant to get a mortgage than it was to rent a property, because they could finance the entire purchase price, including their closing costs. If they were to rent a property, they would at least need the first month’s rent and a security deposit. But if they bought a house, they didn’t need any of their own money up front and their first payment wasn’t due until after they had lived in the property for one month. Plus, with a mortgage, the lender only pulled their credit report, and since most of these tenants never established credit, they didn’t have bad credit. Note that a credit report doesn’t show eviction notices or criminal history, which is where many of these tenants had records. More...